Posts tagged ‘campaigning’

Divided societies, racial campaigning and electoral outcome

Read what Reilly (2001) says about democratic competition in divided societies regarding ethnicity and electoral outcome: “Democratic competition is inherently difficult in such cases [of divided societies] because if the strong tendency towards politisation of ethnic demands, which in turn often leads to the growth of zero-sum, winner-take-all politics in which some groups are premanently included and some permanently excluded. Politicians in didvided societies face powerful incenties to play the ‘ethnic card’ and campaign align narrow sectarian lines, as this is often a more effective means of mobilising voter support than campaigning on the basis of issues or ideologies. A frequent result in multiethnic societies is that optimal outcomes for one player or group – electoral victory for one side on the back of a mobilised ethnic vote, for example – are accompanied by decidedly sub-optimal outcomes for the society as a whole (cf. Olson 1971), as identity politics becomes an increaslingly central part of the political game and the cycle of ethnic hostility and conflict unwins. The ‘bankruptcy of moderation’ (Rabushka and Shepsle 1972, 86) in such cases greatly undermines the prospects of peaceful democratic politics taking root.”

May 7, 2009 at 17:13 Leave a comment

High participation pushes opposition

With respect to unexpected high voter participation (77.3 percent of registered people/ 59 percent of all people over 18 years) at South Africans elections, the IEC extended the opening of polling stations until the next day. On the April 22, the IEC announced the official results for the national level (as well as for the municipal level). The ANC lost share (-3.8 percent) and did not reach the two third by a hair’s breath, while the major opposition parties won.

The Cope turned out to be the most successful start up party since 1994 and is now the second major opposition party. The Cope challenge was to take over 20 percent of the ANC share, but the ANC only lost almost 4. What about the over 3 percent, which won Cope? Keeping in mind first that the Cope split off from the ANC and second the ANC is a left wing party, it seems visible that the Cope positioned rather on ANC’s right side, where all other parties are positioned as well. But, where exactly is the Cope positioned? On one side, the Cope is a young party, with a manifesto close to the ANC, founded by former ANC members. On the other side, opposition parties like ID, UDM, IFP and DA are positioned more distanced, because their ideology is more independent rooted. And the ideolgical distance between ANC and DA is most distinctive. The cluster of ID, UDM and IFP lost overall 6 percent. Following this, isn’t it possible, that the Cope is positioned exactly between these three parties (cluster) and the ANC? The Cope probably took over share from both sides, ANC and the party cluster. Additionally the mobilization of voters seems to be made by the Cope. Remember, the participation was unexpected high with 2 Mio. caste votes more than in 2004. The ANC benefits from high participation with 770.000 additional votes and the Cope total votes are 1.3 Mio.

The DA share increased by more than 4 percent and unifies additional 1 Mio. votes – compared with in 2004. The DA is a liberal party with mainly White and Indian voters (superficial said). This population makes a share of 12 percent of all inhabitants. Where did the DA fetch the other 4.5 percent? Obviously race does not play a role for the electorate, because 4.5 percent of blacks vote the DA (or rather more if it is allowed to break down 59 percent participation equal to the White and Indian population). There can be two reasons for that choice. The one reason can be the social engagement of the DA, which is a key issue in South Africa. Especially in terms of AIDS/HIV, where the ANC rather argues suspect (with beetroot, garlic and shower), while the DA campaigns aggressively in townships. And the other reason lies in an increasing share of economic successful people, who probably prefer liberal politics than socialist or even Marxist politics of the left wing party spectrum. These successful people could also have switched from the cluster parties to a party with a higher chance for alternative politics.

Summarizing the argumentation on party system above, the schema could look like following enumeration (from left to right): ANC – Cope – ID, UDM, and IFP – DA. Surprising for European experiences is that small parties benefit from high voter participation. Does South Africa up side down or on the way to materialize a party system without predominance as proportional representation usually generates?

April 26, 2009 at 15:49 Leave a comment

Public holiday in South Africa

Today, a  public holiday in South Africa, the forth elections take place since the ending of apartheid. More than 23 Mio. people (of approx. 30 Mio. at the age over 18 years) have registered. To register for elections seems to be a barrier for 25 percent of possible voters. Why does political campaiging leaks to motivate these 7 Mio. people? How many people are registered but wont vote? A look at the statistics on voter participation of the past (IEC and EISA) offers a loss of 25 percent for registration and an additional amount which is registered but does not attend the elections. For this year elections can be expected a voter turnout of 70 to 75 percent, which is around 50 percent of total electorate. 50 percent participation is not bad compared to other nations, like in US or Switzerland, but it is not over average. Nethertheless these figures show a trend of decreasing participation. So again, why does political campaigning leaks to motivate 50 percent of the electorate? Does it mean, political campaigning demotivates people? Does politics of the previous legislation(s) demotivate people? Or, does people resign on political future? Are they expecting certain results, which are pre-electoral announced by newspapers and polls, and willing to fulfil these? The elections today assign the parliament and government of the next five years. On the one hand, one single vote of 30 Mio. has an impact of 1 to 30 Mio., which is in mathematical terms like zero impact. On the over hand, voters should keep in mind, that today is the first day of more than 1.800 days with the (not) elected parliament.

April 22, 2009 at 06:22 Leave a comment


about the blog

This blog is about countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) regarding societies, political parties and policies. Most interest will be spent on the countries: Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa and Zambia.

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